Cocoa fell sharply from its late-2024 peak above $12,000 per metric ton, stabilising above $4,000 by mid-2026 — in some cases down more than 50% year over year, with ICE futures roughly 67% below the December 2024 high.
Retail chocolate has not followed. US prices in early 2026 were still about 14.4% higher than a year earlier.
The reason creates an unusual and temporary advantage for small makers.
Hedging cuts both ways
Large chocolate companies hedge cocoa purchases years ahead. During the spike this partly protected them — which is why a bar did not triple in price. Now the same contracts hold them at elevated input costs while the market falls.
They were also still processing inventory bought at higher prices. You cannot un-buy beans already in the warehouse.
Why small makers are positioned differently
Craft chocolate makers generally cannot hedge years ahead. They buy closer to spot.
During the spike this was brutal: small makers faced the full increase immediately while large brands absorbed it gradually. Several closed.
The position now reverses. Makers buying at current prices see relief that large manufacturers will not feel for several more quarters.
What this means if you buy chocolate
The price gap between mass-market and bean-to-bar bars is narrower than it has been in years. It will not stay that way — large manufacturers’ hedges roll off eventually, and their scale advantage returns.
If you have been curious about craft chocolate and found the premium hard to justify, the comparison is more favourable now than it is likely to be in 2027.
What has not changed
Prices are not returning to pre-2023 levels. Cocoa still trades well above historical averages, frequently in the $5,000–$6,000 range, with long-term projections around $5,500–$7,000. ING forecast London cocoa to average about £3,400 per tonne across 2026.
Climate risk persists. Supply recovery is why prices fell. West African weather is why they could rise again.
Watch bar weight. When input costs stay elevated, the common response is a smaller bar at the same price rather than a visible increase.
How to judge quality while comparing
With the price gap narrowed, the useful comparisons are the ones that were always useful: cocoa percentage tells you less than origin and processing; a bar listing a specific estate or cooperative is telling you something a percentage cannot.
And a maker who publishes what they paid for beans is making a claim you can evaluate — which is rare enough to be worth noticing.
Sources
- J.P. Morgan Global Research — Why are Cocoa Prices Falling?
- Cocoa Runners — Cocoa prices 2026 update
- World Wide Gourmet Foods — Chocolate Prices in 2026