Two cost lines on a chocolate bar are moving in opposite directions this year, and they do not offset each other cleanly.
Cocoa is falling
After peaking above $12,000 per metric ton in late 2024, cocoa stabilised above $4,000 by mid-2026 — in some cases down more than 50% year over year, with ICE futures roughly 67% below the December 2024 peak.
It remains well above historical norms, frequently $5,000–$6,000 per ton, with long-term projections around $5,500–$7,000.
Energy is rising
Dutch TTF futures have climbed roughly 120% since the start of 2026, reaching about €63.7/MWh in mid-August, with winter forecasts moving toward €60/MWh from €45/MWh and some analysis suggesting over €100/MWh may be needed to pull LNG from Asia.
Why chocolate is energy-intensive
Chocolate production is temperature-controlled at nearly every stage: roasting, conching (often many hours of continuous mechanical and thermal work), tempering within tight tolerances, cooling tunnels, and climate-controlled storage — because chocolate blooms if it warms and cools uncontrolled.
Warehousing and transport also require temperature control. The energy cost does not stop at the factory door.
Why they do not cancel out
The cocoa decline reaches manufacturers on a long delay because they hedge purchases years ahead and were still processing inventory bought at higher prices. This is why US chocolate prices in early 2026 were still about 14.4% higher than a year earlier despite the futures collapse.
Energy costs reach them immediately.
So the input that is falling arrives slowly and the input that is rising arrives fast. In the short term the pressure is upward even though the headline commodity is down.
What this means for buyers
Do not expect a winter price drop. The mechanism that delays the cocoa benefit is the same one keeping current prices elevated, and energy is pushing the other way.
Watch bar weight. When costs stay elevated, the common response is less product at the same price rather than a visible increase.
Craft makers remain unusually competitive. They buy closer to spot on cocoa, so they see the decline sooner — though they are equally exposed on energy, and small producers rarely have hedged supply.
The honest expectation for the next two quarters is stability at an elevated level, not relief. The cocoa relief is real and it is arriving on a delay measured in quarters, into a winter that is charging more for the heat.
Sources
- J.P. Morgan Global Research — Why are Cocoa Prices Falling?
- Euronews — Europe’s gas prices have doubled
- Cocoa Price Outlook 2026