If you have wondered why chocolate has not got cheaper despite headlines about collapsing cocoa prices, the answer is a mechanism most shoppers never see: multi-year hedging cycles.
What happened to the price of cocoa
After peaking above $12,000 per metric ton in late 2024 — one of the most extreme moves in recent commodity history — cocoa fell sharply. By mid-2026 prices had stabilised above $4,000 per metric ton, in some cases down more than 50% year over year.
ICE cocoa futures are roughly 67% below their December 2024 peak.
Even so, cocoa is trading well above historical norms, frequently in the $5,000–$6,000 per ton range, with longer-term projections clustering around $5,500–$7,000. ING’s commodity team forecast London cocoa to average about £3,400 per tonne across 2026.
Why the shelf price did not move
US chocolate prices in early 2026 were still running about 14.4% higher than the same period in 2025.
Two things explain the lag. Manufacturers were still processing inventory bought at higher prices — you cannot un-buy beans already in the warehouse. And large chocolate companies hedge cocoa purchases years ahead, which smooths both directions: they were partly protected on the way up, and they are locked in on the way down.
That second point is worth sitting with. The hedging that kept chocolate from tripling in price during the spike is the same mechanism now keeping it expensive. It is not an inconsistency; it is the cost of the insurance.
What this means for small makers
Craft chocolate makers generally cannot hedge years ahead. They buy closer to spot, which cut both ways.
During the spike, small makers faced the full increase immediately while large brands absorbed it gradually. Now the position reverses: makers buying at current prices see relief that large manufacturers will not feel for several more quarters.
If you follow craft chocolate, this is the window where bean-to-bar pricing may look more competitive against mass-market bars than it has in years.
What to expect next
Do not expect a return to pre-2023 prices. Every forecast in the market puts cocoa well above historical averages. The spike is unwinding; the structural increase is not.
Watch bar weight, not just price. When input costs stay elevated, the common response is a smaller bar at the same price rather than a visible increase.
Climate risk has not gone away. Supply recovery is the reason prices fell; West African weather is the reason they could rise again.
The useful takeaway for anyone buying chocolate: current retail prices reflect cocoa bought during the worst of the spike. The relief is real, and it is arriving on a delay measured in quarters, not weeks.
Sources
- J.P. Morgan Global Research — Why are Cocoa Prices Falling?
- World Wide Gourmet Foods — The Outlook for Chocolate Prices in 2026
- Cocoa Price Indices 2026: Supply Recovery vs Climate Risk